Workshop on Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis, and Water Management
Dates: January 13-15, 2010
Location: Millennium Harvest House, Boulder, Colorado
The assumption behind traditional hydrologic frequency analysis is that climate is stationary. Stationarity means that the statistical properties of hydrologic variables in future time periods will be similar to past time periods. Anthropogenic climate change and better understanding of decadal climate variability present a challenge to the validity of the assumption. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said “Climate change challenges the traditional assumption that past hydrological experience provides a good guide to future conditions” (Bates et al, 2008). Although there have been academic articles criticizing the assumption of stationarity, it is not apparent what if any alternative methods should be used as a replacement. The workshop presented and discussed proposed operational alternatives to the assumption of stationarity in hydrologic frequency analysis that can be used in a transitional period by water managers and planners, as well as a new generation of methods that could be developed. Limitations of the alternatives were also presented and discussed.
Final Agenda. (pdf, 89 KB)
Reviewed 20 June 2016